It’s Official: Apple’s iPad is Killing PCs

[Chuck(G)]

Well, the HP product will soon qualify as a "collector's item". .

But you're right--this belongs in the "off topic" section.

 

[Tor]

I thought it was in the off-topic / rant section when I replied - didn't look at the forum indicator - I tend to not see them when reading via "What's New?". But yeah, if a mod could just move the thread..

-Tor

 

[tezza]

I know this is an idiotic question to ask at this point, but how exactly does an iPad lovefest qualify as a "Vintage" computer conversation?

I agree that this should be in the off-topic or rant section. However, I don't see the discussion being an "ipad lovefest" one, apart from perhaps the provocative title.

Just to be clear, I'm no "latest-gadget" fanboy. I am certainly no Apple fanboy, in fact quite the opposite. I despise the anti-competitive, lock-you-in corporate culture that is Apple products. However, as communication/web-surfing/entertainment devices I do see IPAD-like technologies as having a real future. If you think of it less as a computer in the traditional sense but as an easy-to-use appliance requiring no understanding of the underlying technologies, then it fits its purpose well. I do see the decline of the desktop because of it...especially for home use. There are lots of things that tablets cannot do though, so desktops/laptops are not suddenly going to disappear.

Like it or not the average consumer has no interest in the technologies like we do, they just want the services/product it can deliver. There was a time when a motorist had to know a fair amount about how an internal combustion engine worked, and carry some tools in order to have confidence they would get from point A to B. Those days are long gone. Consumer computing has gone the same way.

For myself, I DO have an interest in underlying technologies, which is why I like playing with/fixing old computers, very similiar to the way motoring enthusiasts like to keep old cars going, both for the challenge and to keep some history alive. However, I see IPAD-like devices as a naural progression of "consumer/home" computer technology, where the technology itself becomes hidden (and inaccessable). It's the apps and services that that technology provides that matters to most people. This is the normal pathway for all technologies as they mature.

Tez

 

[barythrin]

To be fair yes I'm fairly anti-closed development and I really dislike being forced into one option hence my distaste for Apple post the IIe. However to be fair I'm obviously wrong if one looks at their stock. Apparently yes todays kids don't realize they need to buy a new computer every year to get new features and throw away the old one. I would understand if they were $100, but throwing away your device every year at $700 I can't believe folks are doing that but again.. I'm apparently wrong lol. Too controlling for my taste and I would get tired of jail breaking it just to run the stuff I want. I'm not (well probably never was) in the norm for wanting to constantly tell people where I am and what I'm thinking every few minutes. I'm really surprised though because holding an ipad seems really horrible to me.. it's way too big to be convenient IMO and it can't go into a pocket or anything so it still baffles me. I'm not quite sure what the difference is where everyone hopped onto the mp3 player bandwagon but not the Palm pilot. I still think the future though is computers and phones merging. One device that is carryable and portable makes sense to me, I just would much rather have the external ability to use a keyboard and larger display.. and some peripherals.

Did they resolve anything with the suspicious price hike Apple was offering Aussies? Makes ya wonder who else is getting an nonequivalent price.

 

[krebizfan]

The Ipads I see showing up at local developers conferences have numerous accessories attached (keyboard, cover, supports, ets) which basically convert the Ipad into a laptop that needs to be assembled for use. Somehow I just don't see the $600+ Ipad plus $150 or so in other components to turn the Ipad into the equivalent of a $300 laptop as an effective long term business model. Though the Ipad does have one major benefit over a laptop: the Ipad won't run most development software so the Ipad prevents endless workdays.

 

[Druid6900]

I think Tezza hit it on the head.

It's NOT a computer, but, I don't think of it as an appliance either since your average toaster is more useful, seeing as it actually DOES something. It's more an entertainment device and a status symbol. Computer wars will be replaced by Tablet Wars and push Phone Wars aside.

It's for people who don't need a computer because they don't actually have anything useful to do on a computer.

Yeah, I'm going to design an orbital launch platform on an ipad as much as I'm going to do serious research on a phone.

Tablets may replace computers for those people whose life revolves around texting and cute little "use a couple of times" apps, but, for anything serious, you'll need a "drop software on me and I can do anything" desktop.

 

[commodorejohn]

I would understand if they were $100, but throwing away your device every year at $700 I can't believe folks are doing that but again.. I'm apparently wrong lol.

No you're not. The worst thing the 20th century ever brought us was the evolution of the phrase "the customer is always right" into the now horrifyingly-common notion that value judgements are subject to the whim of the market, and that people's autonomy over their own purchasing decisions exempts them from any criticism of same. They're wrong, you know they're wrong, you don't need to pretend otherwise.

I'm not (well probably never was) in the norm for wanting to constantly tell people where I am and what I'm thinking every few minutes.

That's because you haven't had your mind enslaved by web service providers who want to turn you into brainless chattel to milk for marketing information.

It's for people who don't need a computer because they don't actually have anything useful to do on a computer.

Dear sir: you are awesome. Never change.

 

[tezza]

Tablets may replace computers for those people whose life revolves around texting and cute little "use a couple of times" apps, but, for anything serious, you'll need a "drop software on me and I can do anything" desktop.

Absolutely my friend.

But to get back to the original assertion "Apple's IPAD is killing PCs". Many household's existing use of computing technology DOES in fact revolve around communications, "look-em up" browsing and entertainment. In the past they have used PCs and laptops to do this. It's likely in the future many homes will use tablet-type devices instead as they are cheaper, lighter and you can be 1/2 brain dead and still figure out how to use them. So..

Will the IPAD kill the PC? No, but I still think it will lose much (not all) of the home market to tablet-type devices.

Is that a "good thing" for society ? Well, that's a much bigger question and it relates to how the technology is used. Should television be villified because 90% is of what's screened on free-to-air is moronic reality shows for which you don't need 1/2 a brain but it fact no brain.

Tez

 

[Tor]

[the ipad] can't go into a pocket or anything so it still baffles me.

I've got two new items of clothing, one of them a windbreaker jacket, and they both have a pocket specifically designed for an ipad!
I don't own one (and that probably won't change), but I could possibly, just maybe, get a Kindle which would also fit there. For now I use the pocket for large books and things when I go onto an airplane.

-Tor

 

[Druid6900]

Will the IPAD kill the PC? No, but I still think it will lose much (not all) of the home market to tablet-type devices.

Tez

If this means the end of the 95% of horrendous websites on the 'net that no one but the "author" gives a s**t about, then, I say, BRING ON THE iPADS !!!!

 

[Chuck(G)]

I've got two new items of clothing, one of them a windbreaker jacket, and they both have a pocket specifically designed for an ipad!
I don't own one (and that probably won't change), but I could possibly, just maybe, get a Kindle which would also fit there. For now I use the pocket for large books and things when I go onto an airplane.

Apparently, the new Kindle will be about $50 cheaper and come with ad-supported free 3G service (at least in the US). It might tempt me, as I like to read a lot. As long as I can upload my own PDFs, they might have a sale with me.

 

[Unknown_K]

The problem with the masses ditching the desktop for portable devices is that desktops and their parts will cost a hell of a lot more to buy. As it is I think currently because of the volume of laptops compared to desktop that RAM is cheaper for laptops (same speed and size), laptop HD prices have dropped quite a bit over the years as well.

The last thing I want to see is Apple take over the CPU market selling ipads and equivalents making AMD and Intel chips for the desktop much more expensive (who wants to see $1000 CPUs again?).

 

[Chuck(G)]

The last thing I want to see is Apple take over the CPU market selling ipads and equivalents making AMD and Intel chips for the desktop much more expensive (who wants to see $1000 CPUs again?).

$1000 would be a welcome pricing for the Xeon X7560 CPU...

 

[Tor]

The problem with the masses ditching the desktop for portable devices is that desktops and their parts will cost a hell of a lot more to buy. As it is I think currently because of the volume of laptops compared to desktop that RAM is cheaper for laptops (same speed and size), laptop HD prices have dropped quite a bit over the years as well.

The last thing I want to see is Apple take over the CPU market selling ipads and equivalents making AMD and Intel chips for the desktop much more expensive (who wants to see $1000 CPUs again?).

I am optimistic and hope the gamers will keep saving us.. we can thank the gamers for the cheap and extremely powerful graphic cards we have now. The alternative was SGI's Reality Engine and that techology (btw. their developers moved to NVidia as far as I know). Then the insessive demands from the huge numbers of gamers drove up production, research, innovation, and drove prices down. Gamers are probably also an important part of the multi-core CPUs etc.

Hopefully gamers will continue to demand bleeding edge performance and thus won't all move over to ipads and the like: They would always be less powerful than PCs and laptops.

I'm not a gamer, in fact I don't like gaming - it can be fun for a while, but it kind of messes with my head and makes me feel unwell, like when an annoying song burns itself into the mind and you can't get rid of it. Still: All hail the gamers! Because their needs and their demands will save our bacon.

-Tor

 

[commodorejohn]

Hopefully gamers will continue to demand bleeding edge performance and thus won't all move over to ipads and the like: They would always be less powerful than PCs and laptops.

I wish that were more certain - gamers' running (censored)-measuring contest with having the biggest, baddest hardware is definitely still entrenched in the culture, but GPUs seem to be approaching a saturation point where the difference between the high-end and low-end of the latest-generation consumer-market video cards is only even noticeable in promotional stills.

And tragically, the sheer cost of developing for latest-gen hardware is killing the industry, as every triple-A title costs way too much to make to justify taking any risks on it, so everything becomes a slightly-polished clone of everything else. Currently it's more the game critics who are noticing, and the people who were into low-budget indie gaming to begin with trumpeting the news, but it's probably only a matter of time before J. Random Gamer realizes "hey, Halo 27 is just Halo 2 with fancier graphics, isn't it? Why am I playing it, again?"

I really hope this doesn't happen and saner heads will prevail and start addressing this before it drives the industry to another crash, but who knows? Even if that does happen, it's probably going to bring about a diminished emphasis on sheer hardware might, which means PC hardware ought to start looking to other markets for its bread and butter. My guess is that the future for PC hardware lies in media production: music recording and editing, video production, rendering, anything else that creative types need lots of horspower for. The trick'll be taking that market from Apple. Clearly there's only one thing to do:

Port POV-Ray to GLSL!

 

[barythrin]

Market wise I think most of us here are going to be an exception. How much does the price of current hardware affect our latest acquisitions? The systems I'm looking at are mostly in the $50 to $125 range. Regardless of the cost of new, us collectors pick it up when it's old (usually.. unless I'm missing out on all the $85 collector versions of games that people are picking up then dropping off at goodwill and halfprice books after shelf space outgrows the value of the game). While we keep the value steady in vintage technology (irony since that now holds and gains value) I'm not sure we do much for tech growth.

I know the counter argument of course and I do fall into that category for some things, I know a lot of us are in the industry and do have new toys as well but I'm no technophile sporting out the latest faulty gadget all the time.

 

[Unknown_K]

I noticed older gaming cards still have some value (some high end last generation AGP gaming video cards can still hit over $40).

 

[Eudimorphodon]

Whatever happens with the future of consumer computing all that I'm hoping for is that eventually the people who buy Apple products will stop feeling this obsessive compulsion to incessantly parrot positivities about the company to the entire world at the slightest provocation. Whether it's religious fervor or low self-esteem leading to a desperate urge to validate private lifestyle choices in a public setting doing the talking it gets a little old.

(Yes, we get it, HP's issues with their consumer division herald the end of the PC as we know it, iPad sales figures are far more robust than those of the moribund PC market, blaw blaw blaw. Even last Sunday's business section of the local paper was blathering about it so it's not as if someone is breaking an amazing little-known news story when they drag it into a forum.)

As to the actual technicalities of this conversation: tablet-type devices probably *will* replace, or at least supplement, "PCs" for any number of trivial tasks, I'm not going to argue against that. As has been pointed out there's a great number of people out there who don't need a full-fledged computer and/or are too dumb/disinterested to competently use and maintain one. For those people a magical locked-up-so-they-can't-break-the-software-easily slate that holds the user by the hand and gently leads them to where they can spew their mindless ramblings into Twitter and Facebook by bashing their face on the glass is precisely what they've been looking for all these years. All I'd say is to some degree it's an accident of history that Apple happened to be the company to produce the slate that actually set the world on fire.

(I'd back that up with a boatload of historical arguments but it's not worth the time. Suffice it to say Apple was in the right place at the right time with a marketing concept that they'd perfected on the iPhone thanks to the demands made on them by their customers, not because of some immaculate and perfect birth from the womb of their resident Technology Jesus..)

The "PC" isn't going anywhere. Artists, designers, architects, programmers, anyone that does real work on a computer (as opposed to just vomiting random thoughts about what they ate for lunch that day into a blog) is still going to want/need a keyboard and a screen bigger than a piece of note paper to get said real work out of their head and into the "cloud". (And yes, there are the strange people out there that feel compelled to bolt poor substitutes for these things onto their iPads whenever they need them, but one has to wonder about them. Do they hear the music from one of those "put together the weapons" montages from a Rambo movie in their heads while they're doing that? That's the only possible way they could think what they're doing is cool.) Desktop computers are probably going to be scrunched a little further into "niche market" status but it's the affordable laptop that put them there, not tablets. To a large degree the moribund state of the PC market as a whole can simply be credited to two factors that have nothing to do with the iPad:

1: The economy sucks, and

2: When #1 is true you need a better reason to replace something that works than "it's old and I want a new one". Computers sold five years ago are still for the most part fast enough to do everything a non-gamer needs.

And here is where the iPad comes in:

3: For the people that *do* have disposable income despite #1 being true they currently have a choice: Do they spend their mad money on a boring replacement for their perfectly fine old computer or do they get the new popular toy everyone wants? Seems to me it's a total no-brainer that they're going to get the toy.

Lest we all forget it was only about four years ago that the NetBook set the world on fire. It was getting difficult to find a geek that hadn't dropped a good chunk of the price of an entry-level iPad on one and then tried *really hard* to justify their purchase by dragging it around with them everywhere and trying to use it for real work. (I'm not looking down on anyone here, I was stupid enough to buy one myself.) The dirty little secret that dawned on everyone after a few months was that saving two or three pounds in dry weight was *totally* not worth the tradeoff in functionality and comfort compared to a real laptop if you intended to do anything more demanding than tinker with web pages or send terse responses to email with the thing. I doubt tablets as a "fad" will crash as hard as that but I do suspect that as much as the geeks may love sitting on the couch and playing "Angry Birds" with them it will eventually dawn on even the most hard-core that for anyone with a brain and/or real needs tablets have their place *beside* a real computer, not in lieu of one.

If there's any validity to the phrase "Post-PC" era what it *really* means is that increasingly people's electronic lives happen "out there" in the web/cloud rather than being bundled up in a single box stashed under a desk. Once it's in the cloud it hardly matters what someone uses to access it, whether it's an iPad, a laptop, a fire-breathing GAMERZ PC, a terminal at a library, whatever. This process was happening well before Apple came along with their magic electronic Etch-a-Sketch so I see no justification at all for giving Apple credit for it as implied in the OP. The one thing that will not change is the "producers" in that cloud will keep using things we'd call "PCs" for their heavy lifting, while content consumer/Tweeter crowds will migrate to using whatever stylish solution tickles their fancy in a given week, always preferably something that doesn't require opposable thumbs.

 

[Chuck(G)]

How well do iPads work for the sight-impaired? Since we've essentially removed the keyboard, how does a blind person get along with these?

 

[tezza]

Whatever happens with the future of consumer computing all that I'm hoping for is that eventually the people who buy Apple products will stop feeling this obsessive compulsion to incessantly parrot positivities about the company to the entire world at the slightest provocation. Whether it's religious fervor or low self-esteem leading to a desperate urge to validate private lifestyle choices in a public setting doing the talking it gets a little old.

Don't get me started on Apple fanboys. Can there be a more pathetic group of slavish zomboides on the planet.

Tez